Today’s post is an in-depth analysis on the upcoming House elections, brought to use by Alex, a friend of the show. Thank you so much, Alex!
Disclaimer: As a conservative, I have attempted to counteract my political bias by marking all toss-up seats as lean blue. This takes personal opinion largely out of those races, as well as prepares Republicans for the worst case scenario. If things go as planned, these predictions will overestimate Democratic flips slightly. Predictions reflect race outlooks as of October 24th.
Built in factors:
Republican Midterm advantage: Republicans always have turnout advantage in midterms, as Democrats reliance on young voters is a problem. Do not expect that to change after party conflict and country’s shift to the right. Meanwhile, elderly people are the most likely to vote, and they lean heavily Republican. This is proving true in early voting, as Republicans are opening up significant leads in crucial states.
Presidential party disadvantage: since 1978, the president’s party has lost an average of 20 seats in midterm elections. This number is skewed by Clinton losing 54 seats in 1994 and Obama’s loss of 63 seats in 2010. So Trump could see Reagan or Bush Sr like numbers, losing only a handful of seats in his first midterm.
Democratic Civil War: DCCC has attempted to quell the surge of progressive’s arising around the country. Have been unsuccessful in Red states like Texas, but successful in traditional Blue states like Illinois. Fight has raised tensions between establishment Democrats and Progressives, making it difficult for primary winners to unify voters.
| Race | Candidates | Rating | Analysis | Current color |
| AZ-01 | Tom O’Halleran D*
Steve Smith R |
Lean Blue | Trump carried by 1; O’Halleran won by 7% in 2016; Smith running a great race, giving him a significant chance to flip the seat | Blue |
| AZ-02 | Ann Kirkpatrick D
Lee Marquez Peterson R |
Blue | Incumbent Martha McSally running for senate; District moving Blue, and lack of incumbent will hurt; Kirkpatrick running a better race | Red |
| AZ-06 | David Schweikert R*
Anita Malik D |
Red | Safe Red seat; Mix of tough incumbent who won 62% of vote in 2016 and other tight races in the state suggest lack of DCCC interest | Red |
| AZ-08 | Debbie Lesko R*
Hiral Tipirneni D |
Red | Lesko won close special election despite deep red district; close election likely due to lack of name recognition and special election enthusiasm; Don’t expect the DCCC to push again after losing already | Red |
| AZ-09 | Steve Ferrara R
Greg Stanton D |
Blue | Sinema running for senate; Blue district with Sinema taking 61% of vote in 2016; Lack of incumbent status will hurt democratic candidate, but shouldn’t prevent a win. | Blue |
| AR-02 | French Hill R*
Clarke Tucker D |
Red | Hill won 58% of vote in 2016; don’t expect this race to get a lot of attention; Hill leading fairly comfortably | Red |
| CA-04 | Tom McClintock R*
Jessica Morse D |
Red | McClintock won by 25% in 2015; Pivot county plus additional tough races in state take him out of the crosshairs | Red |
| CA-07 | Ami Bera D*
Andrew Grant R |
Blue | Tough flip; Bera won more votes in primary than both Republican challengers combined; Focus on keeping existing seats in state make it hard to unseat incumbent | Blue |
| CA-10 | Jeff Denham R*
Josh Harder D |
Lean Red | District leans Red; Harder a good candidate but unlikely push will be enough to dethrone incumbent | Red |
| CA-21 | David Valdejo R*
TJ Cox D |
Red | New polls show Valdejo with a comfortable lead; DCCC seems to have abandoned race in favor of more winnable seats in state | Red |
| CA-22 | David Nunez R*
Andrew Janz D |
Red | Nunez participation in house Russia investigation has made him a rising star in party; Has extremely wealthy donors | Red |
| CA-24 | Salud Carbajal D*
Justin Fareed R |
Lean blue | Fareed has a chance if he can can unify party in district; Carbajal has a ceiling, but it is relatively high; Incumbent status will come into play | Blue |
| CA-25 | Steve Knight R*
Katie Hill D |
Lean Red | Knight won by 7% in 2016 and has slight cash advantage; California a battleground for both parties, so expect heavy cash infusions for both candidates | Red |
| CA-39 | Young Kim R
Gil Cisneros D |
Red | GOP won by 15% in 2016; Republicans finished 1st and 3rd in primary voting; Kim and Cisneros both seem to be treading water | Red |
| CA-45 | Mimi Walters R*
Katie Porter D |
Red | Waters won by 17% in 2016; Has a 1 million dollar cash advantage; popular incumbent with major cash advantage equals a win for GOP | Red |
| CA-48 | Dana Rohrabacher R*
Harley Rouda D |
Lean blue | Seat part of DCCC’s push in San Diego/Orange County area; Rohrabacher won by 16% in 2016, but district has moved blue; Race still a toss-up, but will mark it lean blue to represent worst case scenario | Red |
| CA-49 | Diane Harkey R
Mike Levin D |
Blue | Darrell Issa retiring; Seat wide open; major resources going into the race on the democratic side; If they do not flip this seat, they are in big trouble | Red |
| CA-50 | Duncan D Hunter R*
Ammar Najjar D |
Red | Hunter far outperformed expectations in primary; New tax fraud allegations against Hunter seem to have hurt, but he still leads in polls | Red |
| CO-03 | Scott Tipton R*
Diane Bush D |
Lean Red | Tipton been in office since 2010; State shifting blue after legalization of marijuana; evident after Tipton only received 54.6% in 2016; Race important to see how Democratic civil war affects candidates | Red |
| CO-06 | Mike Coffman R*
Jason Crow D |
Lean Blue | Crow running a good race as a Democratic wave continues to wash over state; Incumbent status only reason Coffman has a chance in this prime pickup opportunity | Red |
| CT-05 | Jahana Hayes D
Manny Santos R |
Blue | Connecticut just not a viable state for Republicans in the house; Hayes should coast to a victory | Blue |
| FL-06 | Michael Waltz R
Nancy Soderberg D |
Red | Florida shifting red and heavily against progressive movement; Lack of incumbent won’t hurt here; Democrats engrossed in senate race in the state | Red |
| FL-07 | Stephanie Murray D*
Mike Miller R |
Leans Blue | Tight district; Murray new, winning 51.5% of vote in 2016; enthusiasm will help democrats here; Miller running a good campaign, so has a chance | Blue |
| FL-13 | Charlie Crist D*
George Buck R |
Lean Blue | Crist won 52% in 2016; type of race where incumbent recognition will be crucial; Turnout is king in this district | Blue |
| FL-15 | Ross Spano R
Kristen Carlson D |
Red | No incumbent; went red by 15% in 2016; unlikely to change, as strong economy and Scott senate campaign help turnout | Red |
| FL-16 | Vern Buchanan R*
David Shapiro D |
Red | Buchanan took nearly 60% of vote in 2016; Not a district worth the resources it would take to flip it. | Red |
| FL-18 | Brian Mast R*
Lauren Baer D |
Lean Red | Interesting race; Mast won 53.6% of vote in 2016; Will be early indicator of blue wave if it flips; Baer not an ideal candidate, which may end up costing Democrats the race | Red |
| FL-25 | Mario Balart R*
Mary Flores D |
Red | Impossible flip. | Red |
| FL-26 | Carlos Curbelo R*
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell D |
Lean Red | Pivot county; Suggests Rubio and Trump support could help Curbelo; Curbelo up slightly as Powell runs a solid race | Red |
| FL-27 | Donna Shalala D
Maria Salazar R |
Lean Blue | District been turning for a decade now; Lehtinen reputation kept district Red; her retirement disastrous for GOP; Makes this a tough seat to keep; However, Republicans are pouring money into the district late | Red |
| GA-06 | Karen Handel R*
Lucy McBath D |
Red | Handel won close special election; Unlikely to see major opposition in 2018; Expect lead to expand with focus on other races around the country | Red |
| GA-07 | Ron Woodall R*
Carolyn Bourdeaux D |
Red | Woodall popular incumbent in red district; Crowded democratic primary split voters fairly severely; Democratic civil war hurts big here | Red |
| IL-06 | Peter Roskam R*
Sean Casten D |
Leans Red | Roskam popular incumbent; Inclusion of parts of Cook county will hurt as governor race heats up; Illinois notorious for low millennial turnout, which often hurts democrats | Red |
| IL-12 | Mike Bost R*
Brenden Kelly D |
Lean Red | Bost has established a foothold; Interesting race that will likely reflect governor turnout; A race democrats likely need to take the house back | Red |
| IL-13 | Rodney Davis R*
Betsy Londrigan D |
Lean Red | Davis took 60% in 2016; Challenger relatively unknown in a red district; seat should be safe due to strong incumbent, but governor’s race has energized Democrats in state | Red |
| IL-14 | Randy Hultgren R*
Lauren Underwood D |
Red | Low primary turnout bad sign against popular incumbent; Hultgren good candidate for Illinois; Possible, but tough flip for relatively unknown like Underwood | Red |
| IN-02 | Jackie Walorski R*
Mel Hall D |
Red | Popular incumbent in deep red state mixed with massive primary advantage make this seat safe red | Red |
| IN-09 | Trey Hollingsworth R*
Liz Watson D |
Red | See above | Red |
| IA-01 | Rod Blum R*
Abby Finkenauer D |
Lean Blue | Will be a referendum on Trump; Iowa enthusiastically backed Trump after Obama disaster; Race is very close as DCCC has targeted this district in a major way | Red |
| IA-02 | Dave Loebsack D*
Chris Peters R |
Blue | Pivot county; Peters lost in 2016, has very little cash; presence of libertarian candidate can only negatively affect GOP chance | Blue |
| KS-02 | Paul Davis D
Steve Watkins R |
Lean Red | Lean Red only because of 61% Jenkins received in 2016; Lack of incumbent and crowded primary hurts; Gives Libertarian a chance to eat away some of the vote; Davis not especially strong, but has a chance | Red |
| KS-03 | Kevin Yoder R*
Sharice Davis D |
Leans Blue | Yoder appears to be in trouble here; Does not seem to be taking the race as seriously as he needs to be; Can still regain ground, but he’s on the ropes; Perhaps he sees something we can’t | Red |
| KY-06 | Andy Barr R*
Amy Mcgrath D |
Red | Barr won easy in 2016; Libertarian candidate will hurt dominate percentage, but should not prevent win; Mcgrath simply not a strong enough candidate to dethrone him | Red |
| ME-02 | Bruce Poliquin R*
Jared Golden D |
Lean Blue | Maine bastion of Trump support in North East; Green party candidate a problem for Democratic party in small district; Golden keeping things close however in a chaotic electoral season for the state; Lean Blue to represent worst case scenario | Red |
| MI-01 | Jack Bergman R*
Matthew Morgan D |
Red | Easy win for Bergman here | Red |
| MI-06 | Fred Upton R*
Matt Longjohn D |
Red | Upton has massive cash advantage; won district by 22% in 2016; Received more votes in primary than all democrats combined despite running unopposed | Red |
| MI-07 | Tim Walberg R*
Gretchen Driskell D |
Red | Walberg won by 15% in 2016; Pivot county suggests entire district turning Red; Walberg should win a tight one here | Red |
| MI-08 | Mike Bishop R*
Elissa Slotkin D |
Red | Bishop won by 16% in 2016; Primary and Libertarian candidate will make the race look closer than it is; Democrats have now taken money out of the race | Red |
| MI-11 | Lena Epstein R
Haley Stevens D |
Leans blue | Lack of incumbent, chaotic primary, and libertarian candidate give Democrats a slight edge; Lena Epstein has a large edge in cash, which gives her a significant chance; Most flippable seat in Michigan | Red |
| MN-01 | Dan Feehan D
Jim Hagedorn R |
Lean Red | Minnesota notoriously unpredictable; democrats won by .7% with strong incumbent in 2016; Lack of incumbent will hurt; Minnesota seems to be turning more towards the right than the left | Blue |
| MN-02 | Jason Lewis R*
Angie Craig D |
Lean Blue | Lewis won by 1.8% in 2016; Independent candidate should not be a factor; Polls have been erratic, but seem to show Craig with a slight edge | Red |
| MN-07 | Colin Peterson D*
David Hughes R |
Blue | Hughes lost by 5% in 2016; Pivot county, so Trump’s campaign may help, but incumbent status likely enough to hold on to seat | Blue |
| MN-08 | Pete Stauber R
Joe Radinovich D |
Red | Pivot county; Democrats won by .6% in 2016, but incumbent is retiring; Polls show Stauber up by double digits, a good sign for the GOP in Minnesota | Blue |
| MO-02 | Ann Wagner R*
Cort Van Ostran D |
Red | It’s Missouri. | Red |
| MT-ATL | Greg Gianforte R*
Kathleen Williams D |
Red | Gianforte Won by 6% in 2016; Incumbent status and crowded Democratic primary, as well as location makes this a tough seat to flip; Williams only won primary by 2%; Senate race likely to spark high turnout | Red |
| NE-02 | Don Bacon R*
Kara Eastman D |
Lean Red | Bacon not a strong candidate; Only won by 1.2% in 2016; But Eastman seems to be fading, giving Bacon a wide advantage in the polls; Democrats have now taken money out of the race | Red |
| NV-03 | Susie Lee D
Danny Tarkanian R |
Lean Blue | Lee pulls party together, capturing 68% of vote in 7 person primary; Democrats with slight edge in voter participation statewide in primary; Polls have this race oddly tight however | Blue |
| NV-04 | Cresent Hardy R
Steven Horsford D |
Lean Blue | Horsford and Hardy both appear in control of their party; Democrats enjoy slight edge in primary participation; tight governor and senate race may be driving high turnout: Race has tightened significantly in October | Blue |
| NH-01 | Chris Pappas D
Eddie Edwards R |
Lean Blue | Porter retiring after winning by 1.3% in 2016; Pivot county as Trump is very popular in New Hampshire; Small poll sizes on New Hampshire make this hard to call | Blue |
| NH-02 | Ann Kuster D*
Steve Negron R |
Blue | Huge cash advantage for incumbent; Blue district naturally; tough flip | Blue |
| NJ-02 | Seth Grossman R
Jeff Van Drew D |
Lean Blue | Popular incumbent retiring; GOP won by 12% in 2016; Not a small district, so momentum on Republicans side; Primary participation identical for both parties; New Jersey shifting left, giving Van Drew a slight edge | Red |
| NJ-03 | Tom McArthur R*
Andrew Kim D |
Lean Blue | McArthur won by 11% in 2016; Tight race, good campaigns on both sides; Polls show Kim with a tight lead | Red |
| NJ-05 | Josh Gottheimer D*
John McCann R |
Blue | Tough district to flip; New Jersey does not seem to viable for GOP as far as the house is concerned, but perhaps senate turnout will prove me wrong | Blue |
| NJ-07 | Leonard Lance R*
Tom Malinowski D |
Leans Blue | Lance won by 11% in 2016; Big chance for Dems to pick up seat here; Absolutely critical flip if the blue wave is going to materialize in any significant way | Red |
| NJ-11 | Jay Webber R
Mikie Sherrill D |
Lean blue | Retiring incumbent won by 19% in 2016; Sherrill dominating polls, making this a likely flip; If the polls get this one wrong, it is an absolute embarrassment | Red |
| NM-02 | Xochitl Small D
Yvette Harrell R |
Lean Red | GOP won by 25% in 2016; Harrell has more party support; State shifting Blue, but Harrell will win it with a good campaign | Red |
| NY-01 | Lee Zeldin R*
Perry Gershon D |
Red | Zeldin won by 17% in 2016; Pivot country, so turning away from democrats; Going to be tough to flip; unlikely to see resources needed with other tight races in state | Red |
| NY-11 | Don Donovan R*
Max Rose D |
Red | Donovan won by 25% in 2016; Won primary easily, but so did Rose; Looks like it will be a close race, but incumbent should be safe | Red |
| NY-18 | Sean Maloney D*
James O’Donnell R |
Lean blue | Maloney won by 11% in 2016; 1 person race on the Republican side gives them a shot; DCCC could get complacent, focusing on other tight races in state; Pivot county | Blue |
| NY-19 | John Faso R*
Antonio Delgado D |
Lean Red | Faso won by 8% in 2016; Low democratic turnout in primary; Civil war heavy in state, so unlikely to see Delgado unite the party | Red |
| NY-22 | Claudia Tenney R*
Anthony Brindisi D |
Lean Red | Tenney won by 5% in 2016; Oddly strong third party present there; unsure how those votes will disperse; Pivot county suggests slight lean to the right | Red |
| NY-23 | Tom Reed R*
Max Pia D |
Red | Reed won by 15% in 2016, has $830,000 dollar advantage on closest competitor, and no primary challenger; Pia won primary by about 26 votes, so heavily fractured race | Red |
| NY-24 | John Katko R*
Dana Bater D |
Red | Katko won by 21% in 2016; Over $800,000 cash advantage; Bater a women’s equality candidate, disastrous in this district; Pivot county ensures Katko win | Red |
| NC-02 | George Holding R*
Linda Coleman D |
Lean Blue | Holding won by 13% in 2016; Low Republican primary participation concerning; Major cash disadvantage odd; Red state and district, but Holding seems to be slacking ; Polls have it dead even, making this a toss-up in every sense of the term | Red |
| NC-08 | Richard Hudson R*
Frank McNeil D |
Lean Red | Hudson won by 17% in 2016; activity statewide concerning, however; Keep an eye on DCCC involvement and democratic fundraising | Red |
| NC-09 | Mark Harris R
Dan McCready D |
Lean Blue | Incumbent Pittenger casualty of Trump revolution; Democrats have vast cash advantage and edge in primary participation; However, Harris running a great campaign and putting himself in contention | Red |
| NC-13 | Ted Budd R*
Kathy Manning D |
Red | Budd won by 13% in 2016; Unreal cash advantage; Redrawing of map benefits Republicans here; Low Democratic primary turnout in red state bad sign | Red |
| OH-01 | Steve Chabot R*
Aftab Pureval D |
Red | Chabot won by 19% in 2016; Over 1 million dollars on hand in a state Trump won by 9%; Should be an easy win | Red |
| OH-07 | Bob Gibbs R*
Ken Harbaugh D |
Red | Gibbs received nearly twice as many votes in primary than his challenger; won district by 35% in 2016; Has a 1 million dollar cash advantage; about as safe as safe gets here | Red |
| OH-10 | Michael Turner R*
Theresa Gasper D |
Red | See Above | Red |
| OH-12 | Troy Balderson R
Danny O’connor D |
Lean Red | Balderson barely won special election; However, special election loss could be dejecting for democrats, and lack of wall to wall coverage of the rematch will likely lower turnout | Red |
| OH-14 | David Joyce R*
Betsy Rader D |
Red | District that solidified Ohio as ruby red in 2016; Joyce won by 25% in 2016; No Democratic interest in seat at all | Red |
| OH-15 | Steve Stivers R*
Rick Neal D |
Red | Stivers won by 33% in 2016; Been in office since 2010; Popular incumbent who has dominated district makes this district not targetable for DCCC | Red |
| OK-05 | Steve Russell R*
Kendra Horn D |
Red | Red district; Russell popular; Oklahoma not a viable state for democrats | Red |
| PA-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick R*
Scott Wallace D |
Lean Blue | Huge primary participation advantage for Democrats; DCCC pushing hard in PA; New map extremely favorable for them: Conflicting polls are interesting | New |
| PA-05 | Mary Scanlon D
Pearl Kim R |
Blue | Pivot county and uncontested primary gives Republicans a chance; 10 person Democratic primary increased participation; New district appears to be safe blue, but lack of prior elections means anything could happen | New |
| PA-06 | Greg McCauley R
Chrissy Houlahan D |
Lean Blue | New district; Both primaries uncontested; District leans blue on paper, but lack of data makes this impossible to call | New |
| PA-07 | Susan Wild D
Mary Nothstein R |
Blue | Used to be solid red, now a toss up with new map; Wild seems to be taking control of the race | New |
| PA-08 | Matt Cartwright D*
John Chrin R |
Blue | Cartwright up big in the polls as redrawn map secures the incumbents seat. | New |
| PA-10 | Scott Perry R*
George Scott D |
Red | Extreme focus on other races in the state seem to have left this one in the dark; Perry a strong candidate and rare incumbent in redrawn state; Scott Pro gun control, not a good platform in PA | New |
| PA-14 | Guy Reschenthaler R
Bibiana Boerio D |
Lean Red | New map made this district even more red; Pundits seem sure this is going to go red; Equal primary participation and lack of data makes me more hesitant | New |
| PA-16 | Mike Kelly R*
Ronald DiNicola D |
Red | Kelly incumbent in consolidated red district; Seems safe at the moment; Even DCCC has Kelly leading | New |
| PA-17 | Conor Lamb D
Keith Rothfus R |
Lean blue | Lamb won narrow in special election; Democrats flaunted victory, angering Republicans; Rothfus much stronger candidate; Gives Republicans a better chance | New |
| SC-01 | Joe Cunningham D
Kate Arrington R |
Red | Trump effect huge, as Arrington takes down incumbent Sanford; Republican primary participation crushes Democrats, suggesting Trump’s endorsement greatly benefited Arrington | Red |
| TX-07 | John Culberson R
Lizzie Fletcher D |
Red | Texas hot spot of Democratic civil war; Brutal primary greatly diminishes chances of Democrat uniting party; Culberson won by 13% in 2016 and can ride Ted Cruz’s strong campaign | Red |
| TX-21 | Chip Roy R
Joseph Kopser D |
Lean Red | Incumbent not running; District went Red comfortably in 2016; Both candidates won in runoffs; presence of libertarian candidate suggests caution until reliable polls emerge | Red |
| TX-23 | Will Hurd R*
Gina Jones D |
Red | Polling shows Hurd comfortably ahead in mid-September; Heavy immigration has increased Mexican presence in district; Hurd with major cash advantage and heated senate race will increase Republican turnout | Red |
| TX-32 | Pete Sessions R*
Colin Allred D |
Red | Sessions won 71% of vote in 2016 due to absence of Democratic candidate; Allred will cut into that, but Sessions has been in since 2002 and has 1.1 million dollar cash advantage | Red |
| UT-04 | Mia Love R*
Ben McAdams D |
Lean Red | Love won by 12% in 2016; Has been a narrow district in the past; Love gets the advantage as a defending incumbent in a deep red state | Red |
| VA-02 | Scott Taylor R*
Elaine Luria D |
Red | Taylor won by 23% in 2016; has 400k cash advantage; Pivot county secures district as Red | Red |
| VA-05 | Denver Riggleman R
Leslie Cockburn D |
Lean Red | District went Red by 17% in 2016; Lack of incumbent and Republican lack of certainty is a bad sign; District has been red since 2000 however | Red |
| VA-07 | David Brat R*
Abigail Spanberger D |
Red | Brat won by 15% in 2016 with Eric Cantor’s blessing; district has been Red for two decades now; Brat a strong campaigner | Red |
| VA-10 | Barbara Comstock R*
Jennifer Wexton D |
Lean Blue | Comstock may be in trouble here, polls have been clashing in a big way, but most have Wexton leading | Red |
| WA-03 | Jaime Beutler R*
Carolyn Long D |
Lean Red | Butler won by 23% in 2016 against a weak Democrat; Beutler won jungle primary by 7%, no reason that should deteriorate | Red |
| WA-05 | Cathy Rodgers R*
Lisa Brown D |
Red | Rodgers won by 19% in 2016; Again, she faces two primary challengers for an unknown reason; Despite that, she should coast to a win in the primary and election | Red |
| WA-08 | Dino Rossi R
Kim Shriner D |
Lean Red | Lack of incumbent makes this a tougher race; Rossi seems to be leading GOP primary handily, while Democrats struggling to find foothold in 4 person primary; Keep an eye on primary participation | Red |
| WV-03 | Carol Miller R
Richard Ojeda D |
Lean Red | Incumbent retiring; GOP won district by 43% in 2016; Miller has a 130k cash advantage, but Democratic primary participation was up; Keep an eye on campaign
Update 6/20: Monmouth poll has Ojeda up by 6 |
Red |
| WI-01 | Bryan Steil R
Randy Bryce D |
Red | Unknown why Paul Ryan is retiring; Could be for 2020 Senate run or 2024 Presidential run; His support will be crucial as he and Walker helped Trump win state; Bryce has multiple DUI’s and has been exposed | Red |
| WI-03 | Ron Kind D*
Steve Toft R |
Lean Blue | Kind did not face a serious challenger in 2016; Pivot county, so Republicans are going after the seat; Toft ad no primary challengers, allowing him to save money, tough race | Blue |
| WI-06 | Glenn Grothman R*
Don Kohl D |
Red | Grothman won by 20% in 2016; Pivot county, so unlikely to see major change; Walker’s governor race will help turnout | Red |
| WI-07 | Sean Duffy R*
Margaret Engerbretson D |
Red | Duffy won by 23% in 2016; Has 2 million dollars on hand; Duffy looks comfortable | Red |
States to watch:
PA: Redrawn map assures Republicans will lose seats. Keep an eye on Lamb’s seat and how Progressives fair in a state that generally dislikes them.
CA: DCCC pushing hard in Orange County. If they can’t flip those seats, Blue wave is in deep trouble.
TX: Democrats seem to think they have a significant chance to turn Texas. If they are correct, problematic for 2020.
IA: Iowa has enthusiastically backed Trump. If seats start to flip there, could be a sign of distress in the Midwest, which could bleed into Wisconsin and Michigan.
OH: Trump turned Ohio from a swing state to a Red state. Interesting to see if it’s his outstanding campaign abilities or fundamental shift in ideology
Overall Analysis:
There are 21 Republican seats rated lean blue or blue. Signs of a blue wave will come early, as most of the Democratic pick up opportunities are in east coast states such as New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Those districts are also representative of California districts up for grabs, so these races will be crucial indicators of whether or not a house flip will occur. As of now, it seems like a difficult task for democrats to flip 23 seats, but very possible. We could see a ripple of 5-10 flips, or a tidal wave of 25-30 flips. I predict a net gain of around 15 seats for democrats, taking into account polling miscues in 2016 and the fact that winning all close seats and not losing any seats is unlikely at best. Also, Republicans have great chances at flipping seats in Minnesota, increasing the number of flips needed from democrats.
