Thanks, Guy, for the latest piece to make us think about those ‘sure things’ in life.
I may have related this thought before, and the story I will shortly tell I am sure I must have related on a previous occasion, but it bears repeating.
In a previous threat Rey spoke of the Mega Millions billion-plus jackpot– someone’s odds of winning it are astronomical, of course, but I’ve been playing it in recent weeks, and hit for– wait for this– seven dollars! “Don’t spend it all in one place, Guy!” Well, nowadays, that would be more difficult than it had been in years gone by, but I managed somehow. Now, I also recounted in my story about the gambler’s flight that I am not reckless in my gambling, so why would I have even played such a lottery game? Let me explain…
When your odds against winning are less than the prize to be won, that is what is called an “overlay”– it is similar, in the most basic terms, to someone offering you, say, 6/5 on the outcome of a fair flipped coin (pro tip: if they’re offering you odds, think it possible the coin is not kosher!). You may win or you may lose, but if you win, the payoff is better than the true probability would tell you– it’s an even-money bet, and to be given odds is like a license to take advantage of the person offering the odds. Like I said, wonder why they’re doing so, but if everything seems to be on the up-and-up, should you salve your conscience and tell them they’re cheating themselves? I leave that to your conscience, but when we’re dealing with a State Lottery Commission, my inclination is not to be so scrupulous, and yes, take dreadful advantage of the offer.
Which brings me to the anecdote about a fool who apparently had no idea of what the odds in shooting craps are. I tried to explain to him that there are six ways of making a seven, to which he said, “No, there’s just 6 and 1, 5 and 2, and 4 and 3.” I said, “Well there’s also 1 and 6, 2 and 5, and 3 and 4.” “But that’s what I just said!” (Now we’re in Abbott & Costello country…) I told him that if he had two different-colored dice, and he threw them one at a time, he would readily see what I was referring to, to which he replied, “That’s not how you play dice, with two different-colored dice and one at a time!” So, I said to him, “So why do Atlantic City casinos pay you 2/1 for 4 and 10, 3/2 for 5 and 9, and 6/5 for 6 and 8 when you play the odds? Trust me, they’re not in business to give their money away!” (a similar thought to Clarence Day Sr. telling his wife Lavinia about McCreary’s Department Store). This fool would play dice in Atlantic City thinking he was pulling a fast one on the house, if you went by what he seemed to think.
There are ways of not losing, such as “Don’t play in the first place!”, the Dr. Archie Campbell Strategy. You will never be killed by a shark if you never go into the water at an ocean beach. But rarely are such decisions easily made and carried out. Even if you yourself do not drive, you could not completely rule out that you might be in an auto accident, only, it would be as a passenger. That is, unless you decide to eschew ever being in a car altogether. Somehow, I doubt you’d be able to pull that off, but you never know.
But the question is then, which risks are you willing to take and which not? The answer will depend on the individual, of course. The obvious answer would be, don’t do things that have a high risk of danger, the proverbial bringing of a knife to a gunfight springing readily to mind. But are you going to avoid ALL risk, even when there is a way to mitigate it? What if the “mitigation” has its own set of risks, like the Covid-19 vaccines? See, that was the issue– you were NOT going to be allowed to make your own risk assessment, because “You’re going to kill Granny!”, even though most elderly who would contract SARS-CoV-2 would pull through it.
Now, some people may add that “That’s why there’s insurance, just on the off chance that shit happens!”, but most of those people don’t know how insurance works, which is another subject for another day. In the meantime, let Damon Runyon be your guide as to the relative likelihood of shit happening, and how to mitigate risk:
“The race is not always to the swift nor the contest to the strong, but that’s the way smart money bets,” and
“When betting on a ‘sure thing’ at the racetrack, always hold out enough for cab fare home.”
