Today’s post is an in depth analysis of the mid-term house races by Alex, a friend of FR’s. Enjoy!!!
Built in factors:
Republican Midterm advantage: Republicans always have turnout advantage in midterms, as Democrats reliance on young voters is a problem. Do not expect that to change after party conflict and country’s shift to the right. Meanwhile, Old people are the most likely to vote, and they lean heavily Republican
Presidential party disadvantage: since 1978, the president’s party has lost an average of 20 seats in midterm elections. This number is skewed by Clinton losing 54 seats in 1994 and Obama’s loss of 63 seats in 2010. So Trump could see Reagan or Bush like numbers, losing only a handful of seats in his first midterm.
Democratic Civil War: DCCC has attempted to quell the surge of progressive’s arising around the country. Have been unsuccessful in Red states like Texas, but successful in traditional Blue states like Illinois. Fight has raised tensions between establishment Democrats and Progressives, making it difficult for primary winners to unify voters.
| Race | Candidates | Rating | Analysis | Current color |
| AZ-01 | Tom O’Halleran D*
Steve Smith R |
Lean Blue | Trump carried by 1; O’Halleran won by 7% in 2016; Strong Green Party candidate in that race earned 6%; Party presence non existent so far. | Blue |
| AZ-02 | Primary Pending | Toss Up | Incumbent Martha McSally running for senate; Appears to be red, but a contested primary may motivate democrats; Wait and see how the winners of crowded primaries on both sides unite party | Red |
| AZ-06 | David Schweikert R *
Primary Pending |
Red | Safe Red seat; Mix of tough incumbent who won 62% of vote in 2016 and other tight races in the state suggest lack of DCCC interest; Expect a progressive to win primary on enthusiasm and lose big due to lack of funding and support | Red |
| AZ-08 | Debbie Lesko R*
Primary pending |
Red | Lesko won close special election despite deep red district; close election likely due to lack of name recognition and special election enthusiasm; Don’t expect the DCCC to push again after losing already | Red |
| AZ-09 | Primary pending | Blue | Sinema running for senate; Blue district with Sinema taking 61% of vote in 2016; Lack of incumbent status will hurt democratic candidate, but shouldn’t prevent a win. | Blue |
| AR-02 | French Hill R*
Clarke Tucker D |
Red | Hill won 58% of vote in 2016; Low primary participation bad sign for Democrats; don’t expect this race to get a lot of attention. | Red |
| CA-04 | Tom McClintock R*
Jessica Morse D |
Red | McClintock won by 25% in 2015; Received more primary votes than all 4 Democrats combined; Pivot county ensures McClintock safe win | Red |
| CA-07 | Ami Bera D*
Andrew Grant R |
Blue | Tough flip; Bera won more votes in primary than both Republican challengers combined; Focus on keeping existing seats in state make it hard to unseat incumbent | Blue |
| CA-10 | Jeff Denham R*
Josh Harder D |
Lean Red | 1st and 3rd Primary finishers both Republican; Doubt that Harder will be able to absorb small amount of voters each other Democratic candidate received; Don’t think push will be enough to dethrone incumbent | Red |
| CA-21 | David Valdejo R*
TJ Cox D |
Toss up | Complete lack of data makes race impossible to predict at this point | Red |
| CA-22 | David Nunez R*
Andrew Janz D |
Red | Nunez participation in house Russia investigation has made him a rising star in party; Blew all three democrats combined out of the water in primary; Has extremely wealthy donors | Red |
| CA-24 | Salud Carbajal D*
Justin Fareed R |
Lean blue | Fareed has a chance if he can can unify party in district; Carbajal has a ceiling, but it is relatively high; Incumbent status will come into play | Blue |
| CA-25 | Steve Knight R*
Katie Hill D |
Lean Red | Knight received more votes than all 4 Democratic challengers combined; Knight won by 7% in 2016 and has slight cash advantage; California a battleground for both parties; so expect heavy cash infusions for both candidates | Red |
| CA-39 | Young Kim R
Gil Cisneros D |
Lean Red | GOP won by 15% in 2016; Republicans finished 1st and 3rd in primary voting; Keep an eye on campaign | Red |
| CA-45 | Mimi Walters R*
Katie Porter D |
Red | Waters won by 17% in 2016; Has a 1 million dollar cash advantage; popular incumbent with major cash advantage equals a win for GOP | Red |
| CA-48 | Dana Rohrabacher R*
Harley Rouda D |
Toss up | Seat part of DCCC’s push in San Diego/Orange County area; Rohrabacher won by 16% in 2016, but district has moved blue; Expect this to stay red, but will keep an eye on polls | Red |
| CA-49 | Diane Harkey R
Mike Levin D |
Blue | Darrell Issa retiring; Seat wide open; unreal resources going into the race on the democratic side; If they don’t flip this seat, they’re in big trouble | Red |
| CA-50 | Duncan D Hunter R*
Ammar Najjar D |
Red | Hunter far outperformed expectations in primary; Najjar a major progressive, meaning he will unlikely rally the party behind him; Hunter should win easily | Red |
| CO-03 | Scott Tipton R*
Primary pending |
Lean Red | Tipton been in since 2010; State shifting blue after legalization of marijuana; evident after Tipton only received 54.6% in 2016; Race important to see how Democratic civil war affects candidates | Red |
| CO-06 | Mike Coffman R*
Primary pending |
Lean Red | Coffman seems immune to blue shift; maintained seat since 2008 in district that went for Obama in 2012 and Hillary in 2016; Despite district voting for Hillary, Coffman maintained 51% of vote; Suggests strong rapport with locals. | Red |
| CN-05 | Primary Pending | Blue | Expect brutal primary; not enough candidates in democratic primary to fracture party; door not open for Republicans barring major scandal | Blue |
| FL-06 | Primary Pending | Red | Florida shifting red and heavily against progressive movement; Lack of incumbent won’t hurt here; Democrats engrossed in senate race in the state | Red |
| FL-07 | Stephanie Murray D*
Primary Pending |
Leans Blue | Tight district; Murray new, winning 51.5% of vote in 2016; enthusiasm will help democrats here; Hard flip with Scott’s senate race in progress | Blue |
| FL-13 | Charlie Crist D*
Primary Pending |
Blue | Crist won 52% in 2016; type of race where incumbent recognition will be crucial; lack of strong Republican candidate coupled with contested senate race likely leads to duplication of 2016 result | Blue |
| FL-15 | Primary Pending | Red | No incumbent; went red by 15% in 2016; unlikely to change despite crowded GOP Primary field | Red |
| FL-16 | Vern Buchanan R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Buchanan took nearly 60% of vote in 2016; Not a district worth the resources it would take to flip it. | Red |
| FL-18 | Brian Mast R*
Primary Pending |
Lean Red | Interesting race; Mast won 53.6% of vote in 2016; Will be early indicator of blue wave if it flips; Keep an eye on primary; Conor Lamb type could win here | Red |
| FL-25 | Mario Balart R* | Red | Impossible flip. | Red |
| FL-26 | Carlos Curbelo R*
Primary Pending |
Leans red | Pivot county; Suggests Rubio and Trump support could help Curbelo; Primary may leave door open for the right Democrat however | Red |
| FL-27 | Primary Pending | Blue | District been turning for a decade now; Lehtinen reputation kept district Red; her retirement disastrous for GOP; automatic flip for democrats. | Red |
| GA-06 | Karen Handel R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Handel won close special election; Unlikely to see major opposition in 2018; Expect lead to expand with focus on other races around the country; Could flip, but not expected too | Red |
| GA-07 | Ron Woodall R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Woodall popular incumbent in red district; Crowded democratic primary as DCCC targets spot; still have to fend off progressive challengers; Those voters unlikely to rally around establishment democrat against Woodall; Democratic civil war hurts big here | Red |
| IL-06 | Peter Roskam R*
Sean Casten D |
Leans Blue | Roskam popular incumbent; Inclusion of parts of Cook county will hurt as governor race heats up; Illinois turning blue fast, but low millenial turnout has hurt effort | Red |
| IL-12 | Mike Bost R*
Brenden Kelly D |
Toss up | Bost has established a foothold; Interesting race that will likely reflect governor turnout; A race democrats likely need to take the house back; Pivot county | Red |
| IL-13 | Rodney Davis R*
Betsy Londrigan D |
Red | Davis took 60% in 2016; Challenger relatively unknown in a red district; seat should be safe due to strong incumbent and other competitive races in state. | Red |
| IL-14 | Randy Hultgren R*
Lauren Underwood D |
Red | Low primary turnout bad sign against popular incumbent; Hultgren good candidate for Illinois; Possible, but tough flip for relatively unknown like Underwood | Red |
| IN-02 | Jackie Walorski R*
Mel Hall * |
Red | Popular incumbent in deep red state mixed with massive primary advantage make this seat safe red | Red |
| IN-09 | Trey Hollingsworth R*
Liz Watson D |
Red | See above | Red |
| IA-01 | Rod Blum R*
Abby Finkenauer D |
Toss up | Will be a referendum on Trump; Iowa enthusiastically backed Trump after Obama disaster; If they are happy, should be an easy Republican win; If not, look for state wide flips | Red |
| IA-02 | Dave Loebsack D*
Chris Peters R |
Blue | Pivot county; Peters lost in 2016, has very little cash; presence of libertarian candidate can only negatively affect GOP chance | Blue |
| KA-02 | Primary pending | Lean Red | Lean Red only because of 61% Jenkins received in 2016; Lack of incumbent and crowded primary hurts; Gives Libertarian a chance to eat away some of the vote; keep an eye on democratic primary winner | Red |
| KA-03 | Kevin Yoder R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Yoder 10 year incumbent, won easily in 2016; Has more money than all democratic primary challengers combined; Lack of libertarian presence that received 8% in 2016 will benefit GOP | Red |
| KY-06 | Andy Barr R*
Amy Mcgrath D |
Red | Barr won easy in 2016; Libertarian candidate will hurt dominate percentage, but should not prevent win; Keep an eye on democrat’s ability to unify party after crowded primary | Red |
| MA-02 | Bruce Poliquin R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Maine bastion of Trump support in North East; Green party candidate a problem for Democratic party in small district; Poliquin huge cash advantage | Red |
| MI-01 | Jack Bergman R* | Red | Only Democratic challenger forced to run as a write in | Red |
| MI-06 | Fred Upton R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Upton has massive cash advantage; won district by 22% in 2016; Crowded Democratic primary ensures party will be too fractured to make up that type of ground | Red |
| MI-07 | Tim Walberg R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Walberg won by 15% in 2016; Pivot county suggests entire district turning Red; 91% White district neutralizes any chance of using race/women card, which has been a strategy used in state in the past; Two person democratic primary gives them a slight chance | Red |
| MI-08 | Mike Bishop R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Will be the tightest easy win of the midterms; Bishop won by 16% in 2016; Primary and Libertarian candidate will make the race look closer then it is; No real danger here | Red |
| MI-11 | Primary Pending | Leans blue | Lack of incumbent, chaotic primary, and libertarian candidate give Democrats a slight edge; Lena Epstein has a large edge in cash, which gives her a significant chance; Most flippable seat in Michigan | Red |
| MN-01 | Primary pending | Toss up | Minnesota notoriously unpredictable; democrats won by .7% with strong incumbent in 2016; Lack of incumbent will hurt; Cash dead even between primary front runners; Odd shift towards Trump in 2016 makes this a literal toss up | Blue |
| MN-02 | Jason Lewis R*
Primary Pending |
Toss Up | Lewis won by 1.8% in 2016; Independent candidate should not be a factor; Lewis has a massive cash advantage, but two person democratic primary gives them a legitimate shot | Red |
| MN-07 | Colin Peterson D*
David Hughes R |
Blue | Hughes lost by 5% in 2016; Pivot county, so Trump’s campaign may help, but incumbent status likely enough to hold on to seat | Blue |
| MN-08 | Pete Stauber R
Primary Pending |
Lean Red | Pivot county; Democrats won by .6% in 2016, but incumbent is retiring; Crowded Democratic primary will hurt the parties chances, along with red shift of the state | Blue |
| MO-02 | Ann Wagner R*
Primary Pending |
Red | It’s Missouri. | Red |
| MT-ATL | Greg Gianforte R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Won by 6% in 2016; Incumbent status and crowded Democratic primary, as well as location makes this a tough seat to flip. | Red |
| NE-02 | Don Bacon R*
Kara Eastman D |
Lean blue | Bacon not a strong candidate; Only won by 1.2% in 2016; Democrats can capitalize with a strong campaign | Red |
| NV-03 | Primary pending | Lean Blue | Chaotic primary; Incumbent retiring after winning by 1% in 2016; Nevada shifting blue plus cash advantage of Democratic front runner give them the slight advantage. | Blue |
| NV-04 | Primary pending | Lean Blue | See above | Blue |
| NH-01 | Primary Pending | Toss Up | Porter retiring after winning by 1.3% in 2016; Pivot county as Trump is very popular in New Hampshire; Only presence of Libertarian and Independent candidates make this a toss up | Blue |
| NH-02 | Ann Kuster D*
Primary Pending |
Blue | Huge cash advantage for incumbent; Blue district naturally; tough flip | Blue |
| NJ-02 | Seth Grossman R
Jeff Van Drew D |
Toss Up | Popular incumbent retiring; GOP won by 12% in 2016; Not a small district, so momentum on Republicans side; Primary participation identical for both parties | Red |
| NJ-03 | Tom McArthur R*
Andrew Kim D |
Red | McArthur won by 11% in 2016; Keep an eye on Democratic primary participation levels, but seems safe red | Red |
| NJ-05 | Josh Gottheimer D*
John McCann R |
Blue | Tough district to flip; Two person primary makes it possible, but incumbent advantage hard to overcome | Blue |
| NJ-07 | Leonard Lance R*
Tom Malinowski D |
Leans Red | Lance won by 11% in 2016; Three person primary complicates things, but shouldn’t prevent Lance win; Democrats with a slight edge in primary voting, but was expected as Lance ran on name recognition exclusievly | Red |
| NJ-11 | Jay Webber R
Mikie Sherrill D |
Toss Up | Retiring incumbent won by 19% in 2016; Webber has major cash advantage; Primary voting nearly identical; Both candidates have to unite crowded primary fields after win | Red |
| NM-02 | Xochitl Small D
Yvette Harrell R |
Lean Red | GOP won by 25% in 2016; Harrell has more party support; State shifting Blue, but Harrell will win it with a good campaign | Red |
| NY-01 | Lee Zeldin R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Zeldin won by 17% in 2016; Pivot country, so turing away from democrats; Going to be tough to flip; unlikely to see resources needed with other tight races in state | Red |
| NY-11 | Don Donovan R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Donovan won by 25% in 2016; Faces primary, but crowded Democratic primary likely to split party; major cash advantage practically ensures seat stays red | Red |
| NY-18 | Sean Maloney D*
Primary Pending |
Lean blue | Maloney won by 11% in 2016; 1 person race on the Republican side gives them a shot; DCCC could get complacent, focusing on other tight races in state; Pivot county | Blue |
| NY-19 | John Faso R*
Primary Pending |
Toss Up | Faso won by 8% in 2016; Extremely behind on cash as DCCC contributes heavily to democratic front runners; crowded primary and 4 other parties make this a wild card; Keep an eye on how much cash it takes to win Democratic primary | Red |
| NY-22 | Claudia Tenney R*
Anthony Brindisi D |
Lean Red | Tenney won by 5% in 2016; Oddly strong third party present there; unsure how those votes will disperse; Pivot county suggests slight lean to the right | Red |
| NY-23 | Tom Reed R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Reed won by 15% in 2016, has $830,000 dollar advantage on closest competitor, and no primary challenger; No change here | Red |
| NY-24 | John Katko R*
Dana Bater D |
Red | Katko won by 21% in 2016; Over $800,000 cash advantage; Bater a women’s equality candidate, disastrous in this district; Pivot county ensures Katko win | Red |
| NC-02 | George Holding R*
Linda Coleman D |
Toss Up | Holding won by 13% in 2016; Low Republican primary participation concerning; Major cash disadvantage odd; Red state and district, but Holding seems to be slacking | Red |
| NC-08 | Richard Hudson R*
Frank McNeil D |
Lean Red | Hudson won by 17% in 2016; activity statewide concerning, however; Keep an eye on DCCC involvement and democratic fundraising | Red |
| NC-09 | Mark Harris R
Dan McCready D |
Blue | Incumbent Pittenger casualty of Trump revolution; Democrats have vast cash advantage and edge in primary participation; New North Carolina map causing havoc | Red |
| NC-13 | Ted Budd R*
Kathy Manning D |
Red | Budd won by 13% in 2016; Unreal cash advantage; Redrawing of map benefits Republicans here; Low Democratic primary turnout in red state bad sign | Red |
| OH-01 | Steve Chabot R*
Aftab Pureval D |
Red | Chabot won by 19% in 2016; Over 1 million dollars on hand in a state Trump won by 9%; Should be an easy win | Red |
| OH-07 | Bob Gibbs R*
Ken Harbaugh D |
Red | Gibbs received nearly twice as many votes in primary than his challenger; won district by 35% in 2016; Has a 1 million dollar cash advantage; about as safe as safe gets here | Red |
| OH-10 | Michael Turner R*
Theresa Gasper D |
Red | See Above | Red |
| OH-12 | Troy Balderson R
Danny O’connor D |
Lean Red | Vacant seat; 67,000 voters in 9 person Republican primary, 44,000 in 6 person democratic primary; Civil war could be a problem here; Republicans won the seat by 33% in 2016; Lack of incumbent means play it safe for now | Red |
| OH-14 | David Joyce R*
Betsy Rader D |
Red | County that solidified Ohio as ruby red in 2016; Joyce won by 25% in 2016; No Democratic interest in seat at all | Red |
| OH-15 | Steve Stivers R*
Rick Neal D |
Red | Stivers won by 33% in 2016; Been in office since 2010; Popular incumbent who has dominated district makes this district untargetable for DCCC | Red |
| OK-05 | Steve Russell R* | Red | Red district; Russell popular; Oklahoma not a viable state for democrats | Red |
| PA-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick R*
Scott Wallace D |
Blue | Huge primary participation advantage for Democrats; DCCC pushing hard in PA; New map extremely favorable for them
*Update 6/4: Monmouth poll has Fitzpatrick up 1; poll leans blue traditionally |
New |
| PA-05 | Mary Scanlon D
Pearl Kim R |
Blue | Pivot county and uncontested primary gives Republicans a chance; 10 person Democratic primary increased participation; New district appears to be safe blue, but lack of prior elections means anything could happen | New |
| PA-06 | Greg McCauley R
Chrissy Houlahan D |
Toss Up | New district; Both primaries uncontested; District leans blue on paper, but lack of data makes this impossible to call | New |
| PA-07 | Susan Wild D
Mary Nothstein R |
Lean Red | Used to be solid red, now a toss up with new map; Republicans have momentum; Expect heavy support from RNC to try and prevent full flip of PA | New |
| PA-08 | Matt Cartwright* D
John Chrin R |
Lean red | Solid red district before, very little change after being redrawn; Not enough data to make it full red, but seems fairly safe at this point; Expect DCCC to be spread thin with other seats in the state | New |
| PA-10 | Scott Perry R*
George Scott D |
Red | Extreme focus on other races in the state seem to have left this one in the dark; Perry a strong candidate and rare incumbent in redrawn state; Scott Pro gun control, not a good platform in PA | New |
| PA-14 | Guy Reschenthaler R
Bibiana Boerio D |
Lean Red | New map made this district even more red; Pundits seem sure this is going to go red; Equal primary participation and lack of data makes me more hesitant | New |
| PA-16 | Mike Kelly R*
Ronald DiNicola D |
Red | Kelly incumbent in consolidated red district; Seems safe at the moment | New |
| PA-17 | Conor Lamb D
Keith Rothfus R |
Lean blue | Lamb won narrow in special election; Democrats flaunted victory, angering Republicans; Rothfus much stronger candidate; Gives Republicans a better chance | New |
| SC-01 | Primary Pending | Red | Incumbent leading GOP primary race; won by 22% in 2016; Been red for entire century | Red |
| TX-07 | John Culberson R
Democratic runoff pending |
Red | Texas hot spot of Democratic civil war; Brutal primary greatly diminishes chances of Democrat uniting party; Culberson won by 13% in 2016 and can ride Ted Cruz’s strong campaign | Red |
| TX-21 | Chip Roy R
Joseph Kopser D |
Lean Red | Incumbent not running; District went Red comfortably in 2016; Both candidates won in runoffs; presence of libertarian candidate suggests caution until reliable polls emerge | Red |
| TX-23 | Will Hurd R*
Gina Jones D |
Toss up | Hurd the most vulnerable candidate in state; Heavy immigration has increased Mexican presence in district; Hurd with major cash advantage | Red |
| TX-32 | Pete Sessions R*
Colin Allred D |
Red | Sessions won 71% of vote in 2016 due to absence of Democratic candidate; Allred will cut into that, but Sessions has been in since 2002 and has 1.1 million dollar cash advantage | Red |
| UT-04 | Mia Love R*
Ben McAdams D |
Lean Red | Love won by 12% in 2016; Has been a narrow district in the past; Love gets the advantage as a defending incumbent in a deep red state
*Update 6/6: Utah policy poll has Love up 4, good sign for GOP |
Red |
| VA-02 | Scott Taylor R* | Red | Taylor won by 23% in 2016; has 400k cash advantage; Pivot county secures district as Red | Red |
| VA-05 | Denver Riggleman R
Leslie Cockburn D |
Lean Red | District went Red by 17% in 2016; Lack of incumbent and Republican lack of certainty is a bad sign; District has been red since 2000 however | Red |
| VA-07 | David Brat R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Brat won by 15% in 2016 with Eric Cantor’s blessing; district has been Red for two decades now; Brat a strong campaigner | Red |
| VA-10 | Barbara Comstock R*
Primary Pending |
Lean red | Comstock won by 6% in 2016; 8 person primary could fracture Democratic party sevely, especially in Virginia; Independent presence could be an issue | Red |
| WA-03 | Jaime Butler R*
Primary Pending |
Lean Red | Butler won by 23% in 2016 against a weak Democrat; For some reason, two Republicans are attempting to primary her; DCCC hasn’t shown interest in state | Red |
| WA-05 | Cathy Rodgers R*
Lisa Brown D |
Red | Rodgers won by 19% in 2016; Again, she faces two primary challengers for an unknown reason; Despite that, she should coast to a win in the primary and election | Red |
| WA-08 | Primary Pending | Lean Red | Lack of incumbent makes this a tougher race; Rossi seems to be leading GOP primary handily, while Democrats struggling to find foothold in 4 person primary; Keep an eye on primary participation | Red |
| WV-03 | Carol Miller R
Richard Ojeda D |
Lean Red | Incumbent retiring; GOP won district by 43% in 2016; Miller has a 130k cash advantage, but Democratic primary participation was up; Keep an eye on campaign | Red |
| WI-01 | Primary Pending | Lean Red | Unknown why Paul Ryan is retiring; Could be for 2020 Senate run or 2024 Presidential run; His support will be crucial as he and Walker helped Trump win state; Keep an eye on Primary participation | Red |
| WI-03 | Ron Kind D*
Primary Pending |
Lean Blue | Kind did not face a serious challenger in 2016; Pivot county, so Republicans are going after the seat; Will be interesting to see primary participation | Blue |
| WI-06 | Glenn Grothman R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Grothman won by 20% in 2016; Pivot county, so unlikely to see major change; Walker’s governor race will help turnout | Red |
| WI-07 | Sean Duffy R*
Primary Pending |
Red | Duffy won by 23% in 2016; Has 2 million dollars on hand; 5 person primary could be a problem for the Democrats | Red |
States to watch:
PA: Redrawn map assures Republicans will lose seats. Keep an eye on Lamb’s seat and how Progressives fair in a state that generally dislikes them.
CA: DCCC pushing hard in Orange county. If they can’t flip those seats, Blue wave is in deep trouble.
TX: Democrats seem to think they have a significant chance to turn Texas. If they are correct, problematic for 2020.
IA: Iowa has enthusiastically backed Trump. If seats start to flip there, could be a sign of distress in the midwest, which could bleed into Wisconsin and Michigan.
OH: Trump turned Ohio from a swing state to a Red state. Interesting to see if it’s his outstanding campaign abilities or fundamental shift in ideology.
