Eric’s Weekly Foreign News Debrief: 12/3/2016

**China**
Donald Trump to Call Republic of China President Tsai Ying-wen

In a first for any President-Elect since Jimmy Carter recognized the People’s Republic in January of 1979, Donald Trump has scheduled a call with the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Though the transition team has refused to state whether this signals a new era of relations with Taiwan, Beijing is sure to react negatively regardless of the reaction. Though the US officially recognizes the PRC, Taiwan maintains the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington D.C. with the American Institute in Taiwan serving as the US diplomatic facility in Taipei. Currently, relations with the Government of Taiwan is deliberately ambiguous, though the rather constant supply of cheap weapons to the Republic has long shown where the US would stand if we thought it possible.

Chinese Firms to be Punished or Trade With North Korea

After a decade of trying to get China to support Western and Pacific efforts to curb North Korea’s nuclear program, the US has announced they will begin placing sanctions on any firm proven to be taking part int he illicit trade with North Korea. In theory, China is bound by the UN Security Council sanctions which have been handed down against North Korea. However, China – which has an absolute veto power in the UNSC – has abstained on the majority of these votes and has long opposed them in discussion. This is driven in no small part by the fact China risks seeing a flood North Korean refugees across the Yalu river should North Korea collapse.

China Hastens Efforts To Drain Excess Cash

The internal Chinese rate for inter-bank lending has increased to 3.49%. This comes following the People’s Bank of China deciding to withdraw ¥130G ($18.85G) in currency from circulation in the Chinese economy. The Chinese economy has, predictably, responded by selling off treasury bonds. Coming at the end of the month – when Chinese banks are required to have capital on the books to meet their legal requirements – this is a drastic change from Chinese banking practices of the recent past, where the PBoC would provide easy money in order to help Chinese firms meet their legal capital requirements. This radical change in policy may signal the Chinese government does not believe their previous controls have properly changed the economy in the way intended.

**Russia**
Russian Central Bank Loses ₽2G in Cyber Attacks

Per Central Bank official Artyom Sychyov, hackers carried out cyber-attacks on the Russian Central Bank which resulted in their stealing ₽2G ($31M) worth from the bank. Having hacked into the SWIFT Network – a secure network for inter-bank communications – the attackers were able to falsify banking credentials and redirect wire transfers to secure destinations.

Baltic Neighbor States Begin Training Citizens in Survival Skills

Following the passing out of booklets on how to become guerrilla warriors, the Baltic states have begun training citizens in basic survival skills in case the people of the Baltic are forced to flee the cities and into the countryside. One of the biggest issues for India is the predominance of the bills which have been demonetized. With the ₹500 and ₹1000 notes being worth $7.35 and $14.70 respectively at the time of this article’s being written, most cash payments – which dominate in India due to a combination of a lack of infrastructure to support electronic payments and a lack of trust in the digital monetary system – this would be the equivalent of the US Federal Reserve pulling all $20 and $10 notes from our economy.

**India and Pakistan**

India’s Demonetization Program Has Wreaked Havoc

In the four weeks since the surprise demonetization policy was announced, India’s rural economy has been hit hard by the policy and many have returned to the barter economy – which is dominated by the double-wants problem – even as the stock market has dropped to a 200 day low.

Another Attack on Indian Military Base Near Pakistani Border

Seven Indian army soldiers are dead following an attack on the Indian army base in Nagrota by militants disguised as police officers. The militants killed four in the officer’s mess before taking 16 soldiers and family – including two wives and two children – hostage. All sixteen of the hostages were freed at the cost of one officer and two enlisted men. Three militants were killed in the clash. Reports from the region indicate tensions between India and Pakistan have increased as a result.

**Middle East**

One-Fifth of Mosul Free From ISIS Control

In addition to taking one-fifth of the city, coalition forces have captured four of the five routes into and out of the city. Per reports, Iraqi and Kurdish forces have completely encircled the city – cutting off ISIS lines of retreat. However…

Shia Graffiti in Mosul Sparks Tension

Graffiti bearing an old Shia battle cry has appeared throughout the parts of the city under Coalition control, leading many in the Sunni dominated city to wonder if this has become a sectarian conflict – one of the things which had once led to the rise of ISIS in the Shia majority country. Previously, residents of Mosul welcomed the Sunni caliphate after experiencing persecution at the hands of Shia militias who sought retribution for the actions of the Sunni dominated Saddam Hussein government. After the Gulf War, the US set up a no-fly zone in the south to protect the Shia majority from air strikes and chemical weapons attacks by the government in Baghdad.

**Europe**

Swedish Festival Requires Attendees to Sign Anti-Rape Pledge

After being blighted by rape and sexual assault over the last few years, the Bravalla festival organizers have required all attendees, acts, and staff to sign a written statement agreeing they will not rape or assault other people at the festival. Police at the festival are also planning to hand out “Don’t Grope” bracelets as well. The festival is, rightly, being mocked online for their apparent belief they will be able to solve the issue with just a signed sheet of paper and a bracelet.

Vikings, these are not.

Manuel Valls to Run for President of France After Francois Hollande Drops Out of Race

Currently the Prime Minister (the Head of Government with day-to-day control over the government and the ability to place bills before the assembly, otherwise an impotent position the majority of the time), Manuel Valls is the current favorite to succeed Hollande as the French Socialist Party’s nominee for the Presidency. Valls is a moderate and a reformist by French standards, with his chief opponent in the person of Arnaud Montebourg – a radical opponent of free trade and a left-wing populist. The French Left is expected to be split over independent Emmanuel Macron – the former Economy Minister – and Jean-Luc Melenchon of the Communist party, which is a much larger force in French politics than in most Western countries.

Greece: Turkey to Help Thousands of Migrants Across Med to Europe Every Day

PReviously, the EU and Turkey had reached a deal to pay Turkey £4G ($5.09G or €4.77G) to care for refugees from Syria, and to take in every migrant who illegally lands in Greece or Italy. With the deal falling apart – with accusations Turkey has refused to halt the flow and the EU has refused to make the payments – Greece has now accused Turkey of building a fleet of small craft to help ferry even more migrants into Europe than ever before. There are currently four million migrants sitting in camps throughout Turkey. At a rate of three thousand a day, Turkey could flood Europe for the next four years at a minimum…

Dutch Watchdog Group: Its Okay to Send Death Threats to Gays, But Only If You’re Muslim

According to the Dutch Ministry for anti-discrimination, death threats from Muslims towards gays are protected speech on the grounds of freedom of religion. Per the watchdog, the Koranic and Sharia obligation to kill gays and lesbians on the grounds of their sexual preferences protects such speech. This is in contrast to the rest of the Dutch public who will be punished for such speech.

**Africa**

Sub-Saharan Africa Electrifying In Spite of Grid Problems

Without faith in the grid system which powers most Western and Asian nations, Africans in sub-Saharan Africa have begun turning to solar and wind power to provide enough electricity to power high-efficiency LED lights. In Kenya, the most popular system costs $217 for a photovoltaic panel, two small light bulbs, a radio, a cellphone charging station, and a rechargeable flashlight. This is only $60 more than the annual per capita cost of kerosene, batteries, and candles in the country, and can be paid for with daily payments.

Ethnic Conflicts Continue In Africa

Carrying out a door-by-door ethnic cleansing program, 85 ethnic Fulani were massacred by FPRC – Popular Front for the Renaissance of Central African Republic – forces in the town of Bria. 76 others were wounded in the fighting, and 11000 more were displaced.

**South America**

Venezuela Booted From Mercosur Trade Bloc

With South America shifting more and more in favor of the free market and against government intervention in the market, the new leaders have become increasingly hostile towards the Maduro government. Per Reuters, Venezuela has drastically violated the bylaws of the trade bloc and has been removed for that reason. The Maduro government decried the actions, calling it a coup which had been led by “right-wing” governments who wanted Venezuela and the “Bolivarian” revolution to fail.

Bookmark the permalink.